We Need a Pitcher…
Growing up, pitchers got much more respect in the hobby. Heck, Nolan Ryan cards were often the most valuable non-rookie cards in many sets. The way that pitchers are used in the game has changed and the way the hobby treats pitchers has changed so much it is worth asking if there are any pitchers at all worth buying at current prices.
For baseball, hobby value runs through the Hall of Fame. Greinke, Kershaw, Scherzer, and Verlander have their bags packed for Cooperstown. They’ve got value in the hobby and will for the foreseeable future. It is the under-35 crowd where the pickings are slim. After these four, there aren’t any pitchers who are on a clear path to the Hall which makes it hard for any to retain value.
Why the Change?
Pitchers are pitching fewer innings which is reducing their impact on the game and also greatly reducing counting stats. In 2023, Logan Webb threw more innings than anyone else with 216. 25 years ago, that would have been good for 30th. In 1998 56 pitchers tossed more than 200 innings, only 5 hit that mark last year. Pitchers are pitching less and the question is if they can pitch enough to get to the milestones traditionally needed for the HOF.
300 wins or 3000 strikeouts is a clear path to the Hall, but it is unlikely those marks will be hit after Greinke, Kershaw, Scherzer, and Verlander retire. With traditional numbers being difficult to acquire, we are left with awards like the Cy Young or advanced stats. Let’s see if any of our active players are likely to produce in those categories.
Injured Stars Looking for a Return to Form
Chris Sale- As a Braves fan, I’ve been told multiple times that acquiring him was a great move. I still just don’t see it. Sale was clearly on the HOF path before injuries derailed him in 2019 and he’s pitched under 300 innings in the last five years combined. Sale is missing a Cy Young award, but he did finish in the top 10 of voting seven straight times which voters will love. Still, Sale needs a good second act of his career to make the Hall. I didn’t see anything last year that made me think he’ll be productive and the Red Sox seemingly agreed. If you trust the Braves though, then maybe it is worth betting on him. I’m a bit biased as he’s been on my breakout list a couple of times and each time he got injured.
Jacob deGrom- Jacob deGrom is one of the most dominant pitchers I’ve ever seen and passes the eye test for a Hall of Famer. He puts up absolutely staggering advanced stats (5th in ERA+ all-time) and already has two Cy Youngs. A third one would almost guarantee a spot in the Hall. If deGrom can put up any productive numbers when he comes back, he’s got a great shot. If he loses WAR or isn’t productive, he’s going to be a borderline case. Having only 84 wins is going to be hard for voters to swallow and deGrom still needs a bit more production to avoid turning into a “what if” guy instead of a HOF member.
Veterans Possibly on the HOF Path
Gerrit Cole- Cole isn’t a sure-fire HOF member yet, but last year’s Cy Young removed a significant hurdle for his future induction. Cole also benefits from being at the top of a generation of pitchers that are all somewhat interchangeable. His numbers are very good to begin with, but they become exceptional when compared to his contemporaries. If he pitches well this year, I think he bumps up from a borderline case to a likely inductee. Another top-10 Cy Young season will give him seven and voters love impressive seven-year peaks like that. Cole is one of only a couple of pitchers that can reach the Hall just by continuing to perform near his current level.
Longshot Veterans
Aaron Nola- Nola is going to benefit from putting up numbers and innings in an era where that is tough. He’ll likely end up with a WAR high enough to at least keep him on the HOF ballot past his first round. His mega-contract has helped draw attention to him, but he’s never been a clear dominant ace. He could end up with 50-60 WAR and 2500-3000 strikeouts which will both be strong numbers in this generation. He needs some All-Star appearances and Cy Young consideration to mount a serious case, but his numbers are good enough that he could make it in with a few strong years as an ace.
Blake Snell- Two Cy Young wins should be enough to get some hobby love certainly, right? Nope. The fact that Snell has fewer All-Star appearances than Cy Youngs is a big hint as to why collectors aren’t flocking to him. He’d need a run of seasons like last year and he’s never put up two good seasons in a row. If he wins another Cy Young, he’d be the only non-PED three-time winner not in that Hall. With his numbers, I think it takes four to get in. If Snell gets to four, it’d be very difficult to keep him out even if his traditional numbers are lackluster.
Players in their Prime
Corbin Burnes- Even in a down year, Burnes finished with a top 10 Cy Young season for the fourth year in a row. Burnes already has a Cy Young, but he’s going to need more given his age and low counting stats. Burnes had Cy Young stuff in the second part of the season and will get more media attention on the buzzy Orioles. The title of best pitcher in baseball is up for grabs and Burnes has as good a shot as any to grab it. The odds are stacked against him making the hall, but he’s the kind of player that could go on a run in his 30s.
Logan Webb- Webb tossed over 190 innings for the second year in a row. He’ll have an edge over his peers if he keeps hitting 200 innings. If he keeps throwing that much, he’ll also be in the running for multiple Cy Young awards. 2024 is the make-or-break year for Webb in my opinion. If he shows he can pitch 200 innings, he’ll be one of only three or four pitchers that can be counted on to pitch that much at a high level. The other possibility is a trip to the IR if he truly has pitched too much.
Zac Gallen- Gallen was an ace in 2023 with a lot of stats to love, but my favorite is the fact he threw 210 innings. He’s now the rarest commodity in baseball, a 200-inning thrower at the front of a rotation. Losing time to the COVID year and also to injury will give Gallen an uphill battle to reach the HOF. He’s clearly got the stuff to become a dominant ace. Now, we are just waiting to see if he can put together multiple seasons of greatness back-to-back. If he does, he could find himself on the HOF path.
Max Fried- Braves pitchers have a level of mystique in the hobby. Unfortunately, Fried looks to be on his way out of Atlanta in favor of securing a massive payday. He’s not a high-volume strikeout guy so he needs his ERA to remain low along with amassing wins. His path to the Hall is stringing together sub-3.00 ERA 15-win seasons. Even with that, his counting stats will not be impressive on their face. Instead, Fried is going to need a gaudy win-loss percentage (he would rank 2nd all-time currently) and a string of top-10 Cy Young seasons. He’s entering his prime and at this point each season that he is out of the top 10 greatly hurts his chances at making the Hall.
Young Stars
Spencer Strider- Strider is the only active pitcher that can put up eye-popping counting stats with strikeouts. The big knock on him is his gaudy ERA last year and the fact that many think he needs to develop another pitch. The strikeouts are stunning and are a clear way to drive hobby attention. If he is consistently beating out the second place strikeout leader by 30 or 40 strikeouts then Strider will look like a clear HOF member.
Eury Perez- Perez has a way around pitching fewer innings: being really young. Perez isn’t even 21 yet and by the time he is 25 or 26, he should hopefully have a healthy bank of stats. He’s a big pitcher with velocity and movement so he fits in perfectly with the modern game. Perez has a strong fanbase already and Perez collectors are a surprisingly territorial bunch who hopefully won’t be irritated by me mentioning him here. Even though he can’t by alcohol yet, I like Perez’s chances to be a HOF pitcher much better than most on this list.
Paul Skenes- Skenes is breaking the trend of the hobby ignoring young pitchers. He’s got a lethal combo of speed and control to go with multiple pitches that he throws at an elite level. Playing for the Pirates won’t help and it is worth watching inning restrictions on him when trying to gauge his future value. The earlier Skenes starts putting up stats the better so pay attention to if the Pirates drag him along or rush him to the majors. Skenes is exciting, but to me, he’s already priced substantially above where I think he ends up unless he wins multiple Cy Youngs in his first few years.
Wrap Up and What’s Making Me Happy in the Hobby
There is a need for hobby-relevant pitchers in the hobby. The players featured here are the best shots to take the leap forward and claim that mantle, but just because these are the best of the lot doesn’t mean that any of them reach the lofty standards of past hobby darling pitchers. Hopefully, one or more will become a true ace, but truly hobby-relevant pitchers might be on the endangered species list.
As for what’s making me happy in the hobby this week, it is the fact that writing these articles often sparks me to put my money where my mouth is. This week that meant stopping writing to go pick up a slew of Eury Perez cards. I love the fact that I can still learn and change my opinions in a hobby I’ve been involved in for 35 years now.