MLB Slow Starters

For many players, baseball is a game of ebbs and flows. Collectors know this, yet every year like clockwork, baseball collectors overreact to a player’s performance early in the season. A hot streak at the start of the year sparks a lot more movement than one in July. The same is true of cold streaks.

Unfortunately, not everyone can be Shohei Ohtani. Some supertsars have struggled early. I just said not to overreact, but the problem with early season performances is sometimes they do matter. The task lies in figuring out which bad performances are normal baseball patterns and which suggest a downturn in skills. Let’s check out the nine I’m most interested in. 

Not Worried

These players I’m not worried about at all…yet.

Julio Rodriguez- Julio Rodriguez does not look like the future face of the league right now. Heck, he barely looks like a starter right now. That’s kind of how he rolls though. For the third straight year, J.Rod has started the season as one of the worst players in the majors. The last two seasons have taught us that he’ll make up for it later with an MVP-quality performance. I do worry a bit that if this really is his trend long-term that it will have a pretty strong limiting effect on his ceiling for his stats. Still, he’s had two years of solid production with slow starts so I’m not worried.

Ronald Acuna Jr.- Worryingly, he’s one of two Braves on this list. He’s also the player on here with the best stats currently so I’m likely being overly anxious. Acuna hasn’t been horrible, but he hasn’t been Acuna either. His slow start was masked by the Braves fast start to a degree. With the recent Braves struggles, fans are starting to ask what is going on with Acuna. There hasn’t been much movement on his cards yet. I don’t expect major drops as I’d imagine a ton of collectors are looking to snap up any Acuna cards they can get at a discount. 

Jackson Holiday- Holiday complained about not making the MLB team, got called up, stunk up the joint, and got unceremoniously sent back down. It’s been a rough month for the youngster and I absolutely do not care about any of it. Sure, Holiday collectors would prefer that he took the world by storm, but he’s got all the talent in the world and is still the consensus number one prospect in the game. I still think he’s priced too high so I’m not buying the dip yet, but this is probably a nice time to snag some Holiday cards if you’ve been wanting some. 

Eyebrows Raised

These players I’m cautiously watching at this point.

Bo Bichette- Bichette is bad and the Blue Jays are struggling to live up to expectations. Bichette has been a superstar breakout candidate since 2019. He had strong production in 2021 and 2022 and fans were expecting him to show his true potential last year. Instead, he took a step back partly due to injury. This year he’s kind of fallen off a cliff. He’s in the middle of the worst stretch of his career and it keeps getting worse. It’s not a matter of bad luck as many early-season downturns are. Bichette is simply making bad contact and not hitting the ball hard. At this point, an injury announcement would almost be welcome to explain the downturn. 

Corbin Carroll- Carroll has been bad since his shoulder injury last year. This is an area of concern as many are wondering if his violent swing generates too much stress on his shoulder. It could also just be a sophomore slump. Carroll has the potential to be one of the top players in the game so I’m hopeful he’ll turn things around soon, but the combination of injury followed by poor production is a bad one. 

Matt Olson- Olson went and changed his swing. The results are bad and his swing looks awkward at best right now. One of the big things I look at when evaluating early season performance is if there is a reason for a stat change. A change in approach is one of the main reasons for change that I latch on to. Maybe Olson will turn it around, but I’m concerned. Olson’s relevance to the hobby is tenuous. A couple of bad seasons and he goes back to the bargain boxes. There are reasons not to be concerned. Primarily, Olson is still hitting the cover off the ball and is in the top 5% for Hard Hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity. With his advanced stats looking similar to other years, I expect Olson’s numbers to rise. He was outperforming expectations a bit last year, so I’m not expecting him to hit that peak again. 

Big Concerns

These players are ones I’m actively reevaluating their place in the hobby. 

Paul Goldschmidt- I think Goldschmidt is a no-brainer HOF player. His candidacy could use a couple more productive seasons. Goldschmidt though looks washed. Basically, all of his advanced hotting stats have taken a nosedive. He’s not hitting the ball and when he does, it is weak contact. This is what you see when age catches up with a player. It’s sad. It’s unfortunate. It’s inevitable. I’m waiting for prices to dip more, but I view the time a HOF player starts declining heavily as a buying opportunity, so oddly I’m going to pay more attention to Goldschmidt cards. 

Spencer Torkelson- I think this might be it for Tork’s hobby relevancy. His fans will note that he starts slow like J.Rod which begs the question of why am I worried about Tork and not J.Rod? The answer there is Rodriguez has shown the ability to produce at a high level for an extended stretch of time at the MLB level. Torkelson hasn’t. He’s also fast approaching an age where he won’t be able to climb out of the WAR deficit he is in compared to HOF players. Love WAR or hate WAR, it’s influence on the HOF debate is undeniable. If Tork has a low WAR, it will keep him from HOF consideration. I think he can have a decent career, but I worry his hobby ceiling is J.D. Drew or Mark Teixeira, very productive players, but ultimately irrelevant in the hobby. 

Wrap Up

What players are you anxious about? Let me know in the comments. I also want to make sure to continue my what’s making me happy in the hobby section in this space, so this week it is Heritage Mini that is making me happy. Topps gave fans a gift with a lovely Heritage Mini set inspired by the OG Mini set, 1975. It’s a fun rip and set builders will have a ball, although those doing the SPs have quite the task ahead. Even better, Topps released it at $50 a box. You can’t find it anywhere near that anymore, but it was fun while it lasted.